a trading expert

Sono alla ricerca di nuove idee per i miei investimenti. Giocare in borsa è troppo pericoloso, non sono il tipo adatto per questo genere di cose. Ma forse ho trovato una buona soluzione. Una startup londinese sta cercando di semplificare questo lavoro e creare delle previsioni affidabili sul corto termine per determinare se sia meglio comprare o vendere le proprie azioni in portafoglio.

FB-IPO Twitter correlation DCM Capital
L’idea è semplice. Oggi ci sono centinaia di migliaia di opinioni pubblicate nel web (2.5 quintilioni di bytes ogni giorno secondo IBM, tra i quali 340 milioni di tweets). Se analizzate e inserite nel contesto del mercato nel modo corretto tutti questi dati possono dare molte informazioni utili per capire e prevedere le tendenze del mercato. E funziona, o almeno così afferma DCM Capital in questo articolo. Ecco l’esempio dell’IPO Facebook. L’analisi della fiducia espressa nei tweet inerenti a FB mostra una correlazione diretta tra la fluttuazione della stessa e l’oscillazione del corso dell’azione. 20 minuti prima dell’apertura delle contrattazioni, il sentimento totale espresso dai tweet era negativo e all’apertura si è verificato un calo del valore paragonabile percentualmente al calo di fiducia espresso nei tweet. 30 minuti dopo il sentimento si è portato verso una zona più positiva, così come l’azione ma con all’incirca 20 minuti di ritardo aumentando fino a quasi 40 dollari, erano le 10 di mattina. Alle 12.30, la fiducia di Twitter è caduta, 10 minuti dopo il prezzo ha seguito questa tendenza.

Sebbene ancora in fase beta il vantaggio competitivo di questo genere di tool è chiaro: l’anticipazione della tendenza del mercato con la concreta possibilità di arrivare prima degli altri. Non possiamo dimenticare che questo genere di analisi necessita comunque di una doppia capacità: analitica e d’affari. L’analisi viene fatta automaticamente da un algoritmo capace di dare un valore positivo o negativo al tweet. Le conoscenze del mercato e dell’attualità permettono di contestualizzare i dati, dargli un senso e indicare le conseguenze. Questi due elementi non sono oggi presenti nelle applicazioni su cui molte aziende stanno lavorando ma forse un giorno lo saranno. Per questo è meglio seguire l’evoluzione del mercato e capire rapidamente come usarle. Si tratta di riuscire a guadagnare un vantaggio che permetterà rapidamente di aumentare le performance dei propri placement.

Forse inizio a capirne un poco di più e mi lancio in borsa.

 

 

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About Davide Ballestra

Swiss Digital entrepreneur currently based in São Paulo.

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